Predictive prevalence of asthma in children with allergic rhinosinusitis
Keywords:Predictive prevalence of asthma, Asthma predictive index, Modified asthma predictive index
Background: Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases of childhood. In India - prevalence is 10% to 15% in 5-11 year old children according to the World Health Organization (WHO) statistics. Many of these children go on to develop asthma but the ability to predict school-age asthma based on early life characteristics is currently limited. Early identification of these children at risk will help in reducing respiratory complications later in life. Asthma predictive index (API) - one of the first rule-based predictive models for early identification of children at high risk of subsequent asthma was described by Castro-Rodríguez et al based on the Tucson children’s respiratory study. Objectives of the study were to predict the prevalence of subsequent development of asthma in children with allergic rhinosinusitis using modified asthma predictive index (mAPI).
Methods: This cross-sectional observational study was done in 100 children of age ≤3 years of either gender who visited department of ENT, Saveetha Medical College. Demographic details and the mAPI questionnaire filled by the parent were obtained.
Results: Thirteen percent of the children had positive mAPI score, of which 14% (n=8) were male and 12% (n=5) were female children. Majority of them 77% had positive major criteria and 23% of them had positive minor criteria. Our study shows that 13% of these children who were included in the study will most likely develop asthma in their childhood and adult years.
Conclusions: A positive mAPI substantially increases probability of future asthma. mAPI’s high predictive ability after a positive test can have clinical value for identifying children at risk of asthma. This study may help clinicians better to identify these at-risk children.
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